By DONNIE JOHNSTON

IT IS finally here—Facebook Friday.
To some, it is bigger than Super Bowl Sunday, a real chance to get rich.
The initial public offering of Facebook stock is upon us. Today, the company that has put the average person in the public eye becomes public itself.
I had a relative call the other night all excited because he was going to get in on Facebook’s ground floor. He was surprised that I was less than enthusiastic.
In this day and age, no one knows if the stock will soar or flounder. It is a crapshoot at best.
Still, there are those who are as excited as they were when they were 6 and thought they heard Santa sliding down the chimney on Christmas Eve.
Mark Zuckerberg, Facebook’s founder, just might be riding in on a sleigh pulled by reindeer and carrying a bag of financial goodies. Then again, he might not.
While those who buy stock today (if you can get it) may or may not benefit from the fact that Facebook is going public, Zuckerberg surely will. It is estimated that he will receive about $1.57 billion for the shares he sells while retaining 57 percent of the company.
And so will the other private shareholders who decided Wednesday to take the money and run, dumping 25 percent more stock into the IPO.
But what about the publicly traded shares? How will they fare?
Google sold for $85 a share at its IPO back in 2004 (before the economy slumped) and is now over $600 a share. That’s almost an eight-fold rise.
Other stock offerings haven’t fared so well. When the federal government began reselling shares of General Motors two years ago, they went for about $36. Now, even with GM making record profits, shares are at $22.
Of course, GM had been in dire financial straits. Facebook has always been profitable.
There are a great many things to consider when buying Facebook shares, not the least of which is the future of Internet technology. Twitter is already taking some of the gusto away from Facebook, and who knows what is next?
In the 1980s, for example, Beta was a much better video format than VHS, but VHS won out. Now,
25 years later, both formats are antiquated.
What I’m getting at here is that anything that has to do with technology is not a sure bet, especially long term. Things change too quickly. Science is too unpredictable.
Add to that the fact that GM announced this week that it is pulling its advertising from Facebook because nobody ever looks at the ads. I don’t. I look at my children’s’ pictures and that’s about it. I see enough ads in the newspaper, on radio and on television.
I don’t need to look for more.
Is there some other computer-savvy college student out there devising a better way for friends and family to communicate over the Internet?
Those who buy shares in Facebook are betting there is not. Given the events of the past 20 years, that is not a secure bet, because somebody always seems to be coming up with a better way of doing everything.
Someone not long ago compared Facebook with the CB radio craze of the late 1970s. It is a bit more sophisticated than that, but any communication company’s future is uncertain in this ever-changing world of technology.
Companies such as Microsoft and Apple have remained successful because they have come up with many new and innovative products over time.
Facebook, in its present context, has only one product to offer—communication between friends, family and some businesses. Having all your eggs in one basket is not a good idea.
Facebook at $38 a share may be a bargain, but I’m not buying. In the first place, I don’t have any faith in the stock market anymore. In the second place,
I do have faith in American ingenuity and am not convinced that Facebook’s technology won’t be antiquated in a decade. I’ve seen too may other “sure-deal” formats fall by the wayside.
Facebook Friday! Will it be a boom or a bust?
Only time—and new technology—will tell.

Donnie Johnston:
djohnston@freelancestar.com